Optimal agnostic control of unknown linear dynamics in a bounded parameter range

Abstract

Here and in a follow-on paper, we consider a simple control problem in which the underlying dynamics depend on a parameter $a$ that is unknown and must be learned. In this paper, we assume that $a$ is bounded, i.e., that $|a|\le a_{\text{MAX}}$, and we study two variants of the control problem. In the first variant, Bayesian control, we are given a prior probability distribution for $a$ and we seek a strategy that minimizes the expected value of a given cost function. Assuming that we can solve a certain PDE (the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation), we produce optimal strategies for Bayesian control. In the second variant, agnostic control, we assume nothing about $a$ and we seek a strategy that minimizes a quantity called the regret. We produce a prior probability distribution $d\text{Prior}(a)$ supported on a finite subset of $[-a_{\text{MAX}},a_{\text{MAX}}]$ so that the agnostic control problem reduces to the Bayesian control problem for the prior $d\text{Prior}(a)$.